How the Party Treats Jeb and Hillary Tells You EverythingPermalink +
Thu, Feb 26, 2015, 9:39 am // Riley Sweeney
I try to shy away from national politics but with the presidential campaigns beginning to heat up, I wanted to share these thoughts about Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush.
First, let’s start with the assumption that Hillary and Jeb are running parallel campaigns. Both are well-funded insiders with close connections to previous presidents and are viewed suspiciously by their own base for their moderate positions (Bush on Common Core and immigration, Clinton on siding with Wall Street). Both have a close inner circle of advisors and are planning elaborate campaign roll-outs with the best that staff money can buy.
On the surface, they seem to be very similar candidates. However, they will be received completely differently because of how the parties interact with their base.
In politics, the “base” is the group of people who form your most ardent supporters. They are the die-hard volunteers, the passionate doorbellers, small donors and that one guy who shares EVERY SINGLE environmental petition on his facebook page (thanks, Jerry).
A presidential candidate needs support from their base to win – without it, they can only limp along, struggling to generate enthusiasm. John Kerry was not beloved by the Democratic base. John McCain was not popular with the base until he brought on Sarah Palin, then he was able to pack arenas with cheering supporters.
However, while the people at the top need the base, they do not necessarily love them – and this is where the political parties differ. It also explains why Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic nominee and Jeb Bush will not be nominated by the Republicans.
The Democratic leadership disdains their most passionate supporters, the Republicans are actually afraid of their base.
I’m not talking about local parties, I’m talking about the upper echelons of power. The Democrats view their base as dirty, loud hippies that make unreasonable demands: “$15/hr minimum wage? Are you kidding me?” At their cocktail parties they say, “What’s next, legalizing marijuana and free housing for the homeless?” The Democratic party leadership knows that even if they ignore, insult or marginalize their supporters, they will still show up to vote for the centrist Democrat because the Republican is scarier.
On the other side of fence, the Republicans fear their base. After several prominent incumbents were defeated in the primary by Tea Party upstarts, the GOP leadership has been in a defensive crouch (see: Boehner, John), constantly afraid that the rabid hordes will storm their gates and throw them out.
This is why Hillary can remain comfortable in her centrist positions while Jeb will go through Romney-esque contortions trying to persuade his base that he is the second coming of Ted Cruz. As a result, Hillary will be seen from a position of strength because the national media always likes it when politicians stand up to their friends. Meanwhile, Jeb will be seen as caving to the Tea Party right, a position of weakness.
Does this mean that progressives are doomed to irrelevance? Absolutely not. One of the other key differences between the two parties is that the Democrats are actually interested in legislating, while the Republicans haven’t brought any serious legislative proposals to the national stage since President Bush tried to privatize Social Security in 2005.
As a result, the Democrats have passed some strong legislation in the last decade. While they are unable to push a truly progressive candidate to forefront, they have passed a strong financial consumer protection agency and a stimulus package which included the largest single investment in education and green energy in a generation. On the state level, they have legalized marijuana in a handful of states and passed marriage equality in all but thirteen.
There is still plenty to be done. For instance, progressives lost ground on women’s health issues nationwide, and I strongly doubt we will ever see a true progressive from the Democratic base as the presidential nominee. However, the Republicans will be able to bend their eventual nominee to their will. Will that give them electoral success in 2016? I don’t think so, but it will be revealing about the continual evolution of our political parties.
Thu, Feb 26, 2015, 9:39 am // Riley SweeneyRiley shares some insight into the national political parties
3 comments; last on Feb 27, 2015
Sun, Jan 18, 2015, 9:14 pm // Guest writerEllen Murphy gives us a poem for this Martin Luther King day of remembrance.
2 comments; last on Jan 21, 2015
Silvery Moon In Historic Fairhaven
Wed, Dec 03, 2014, 1:20 pm // Richard LewisPoet Richard Lewis reflects on Elizabeth Warren
3 comments; last on Dec 07, 2014
Tue, Nov 11, 2014, 1:34 pm // John ServaisOn this Veterans Day, a note about how vets need our government to step up - as has never been done. And a personal note on the power…
3 comments; last on Nov 13, 2014
Wed, Oct 22, 2014, 1:44 pm // John LesowUpdate Oct 22: John Lesow has posted a comment with considerable more information on this issue.
1 comments; last on Oct 22, 2014
Sat, May 31, 2014, 11:39 pm // Guest writerA Venn diagram where coal, the Endangered Species Act, Republicans, and Wyoming’s Board of Education collide.
2 comments; last on Jun 02, 2014
Thu, May 01, 2014, 9:21 pm // Guest writerMove to Amend is a national movement to amend the U.S. Constitution and define persons as people and speech as not money.
7 comments; last on Jun 02, 2014
Wed, Sep 04, 2013, 8:37 am // John ServaisAn attempt at linking to one or more writers who can help us make sense of going to war with Syria. An alternative to Kerry-Obama.
Wed, Sep 04, 2013, 12:36 am // John ServaisContacting Rick Larsen and Susan Delbene is actually a viable citizen exercise just now. Tell them to vote NO on bombing Syria.
1 comments; last on Sep 04, 2013
Sat, Aug 31, 2013, 2:10 pm // John ServaisSaturday afternoon - and a rally is taking place in downtown Bellingham against bombing Syria. Riley Sweeny and his Political Junkie site cover it.
Fri, Aug 30, 2013, 11:08 am // John ServaisGee, can we make it any clearer? Publisher opinion. So sad that we have to write this to Obama - who got our vote in 2008 because he…
4 comments; last on Aug 31, 2013
Wed, Aug 14, 2013, 11:24 am // John ServaisThe Feds gag an Email service owner - so he cannot even tell us why he is gagged.
2 comments; last on Aug 15, 2013
Thu, Aug 08, 2013, 12:05 am // John ServaisLiberal talking head Lawrence O'Donnell went into a bullying rant against a well qualified guest - and showed he's just like O'Reilly.
2 comments; last on Aug 08, 2013
Sun, Jul 14, 2013, 10:25 am // John ServaisThe explosion of hate and racist rhetoric is the saddest aspect of the verdict. The evidence was complicated and the verdict difficult to make.
2 comments; last on Jul 16, 2013
Mon, Jun 10, 2013, 12:53 pm // John ServaisEdward Snowden is a very courageous patriot, in the opinion of the publisher of NWCitizen.
3 comments; last on Jun 14, 2013
Sun, Apr 28, 2013, 9:30 pm // John ServaisNew York Times columnist, Paul Krugman, has a masterful short article that explains why austerity is not working.
3 comments; last on May 23, 2013
Wed, Mar 06, 2013, 10:05 am // Dick ConoboyYou are not likely to escape the coming transfer of $billions from your pocket to the health insurance industry. You will get little, if anything, in return.
4 comments; last on Apr 05, 2013
Fri, Dec 28, 2012, 12:33 pm // John LesowA comparison of U.S. and Canadian attitudes and policies for taxes and fiscal integrity. By a Canadian citizen.
7 comments; last on Feb 03, 2013
Wed, Dec 12, 2012, 11:04 am // John ServaisIf you or a friend are in foreclosure, or an attorney defending someone, then hopefully you already know about this. If not... here it is.
2 comments; last on Dec 19, 2012
Sat, Nov 24, 2012, 11:09 am // John ServaisWherein that local political junkie, Riley Sweeney, has written up a comprehensive analysis of 2016 U.S. presidential election.
Wed, Nov 07, 2012, 12:21 am // John ServaisA light and short take on the Democratic Party celebration at the VFW Post meeting hall. And a heavy bit on national politics.
18 comments; last on Nov 10, 2012
Wed, Oct 31, 2012, 7:29 am // Riley SweeneyHere's your shot at fame and glory as a political pundit
4 comments; last on Nov 02, 2012
Mon, Sep 17, 2012, 9:45 am // John ServaisPrecedent is plentiful of the Feds censoring free speech and videos - but double standard is protecting anti-Islam film.
6 comments; last on Sep 20, 2012
Thu, Aug 23, 2012, 3:16 pm // John ServaisOver at the Political Junkie, Riley Sweeney has posted a long and interesting interview with our U.S. Congress Rep Rick Larsen
2 comments; last on Aug 25, 2012
Sun, Aug 19, 2012, 10:09 pm // John ServaisWikileaks founder spoke from a safe open window to the people of the world. His words are important to the future of democracy and freedoms.
4 comments; last on Aug 21, 2012
Sun, Jul 29, 2012, 11:17 am // John ServaisNew report suggests U.S. weather stations reporting higher temperatures because NOAA has poorly managed sensors and caused false higher readings.
11 comments; last on Aug 06, 2012
Wed, Jun 06, 2012, 5:45 pm // John ServaisThe recall of Wisconsin governor Scott Walker failed - failed big. Here is another 2 cents worth of opinion - from a Wisconsin conservative.
3 comments; last on Jun 07, 2012
Sun, Feb 19, 2012, 5:37 pm // Riley SweeneyRiley at The Political Junkie attends a forum of Congressional Candidates, and a town hall meeting in Lynden
Wed, Feb 08, 2012, 9:14 am // Guest writerThere’s no profit in searching for causes, and we know there's no real cure. But there's big money in the detection and treatment of breast cancer.
2 comments; last on Feb 11, 2012
Thu, Jan 19, 2012, 1:17 am // John ServaisNWCitizen.com went black for Wednesday, Jan 18, 2012, as a protest against proposed legislation, SOPA and PIPA. Here is what was posted.
1 comments; last on Jan 19, 2012
Tue, Jan 17, 2012, 7:28 pm // John ServaisOn Wednesday, thousands of websites will go dark to show opposition to SOPA. I will be posting a single article explaining who SOPA is so bad.
Wed, Jan 11, 2012, 9:04 am // Riley SweeneyLatest from the Political Junkie on a variety of subjects
7 comments; last on Jan 16, 2012
Tue, Dec 27, 2011, 12:55 pm // Riley SweeneyRiley questions Pike's timing, and Occupy's choice of tactics
2 comments; last on Dec 28, 2011
Tue, Dec 13, 2011, 10:58 am // Riley SweeneyRiley has a conversation with Rick Perry
2 comments; last on Dec 16, 2011
Fri, Nov 11, 2011, 9:44 am // Riley SweeneyMitt Romney is darn lucky
Sat, Nov 05, 2011, 5:14 am // Riley SweeneyRemember, remember the fifth of November . . .
Sat, Oct 29, 2011, 2:00 am // John ServaisSergeant Shamar Thomas talks sense to the NY police on the streets after they beat peaceful demonstrators - and they are zombies. Nobody home. Mindless cops.
10 comments; last on Nov 04, 2011
Sat, Oct 08, 2011, 2:29 pm // Riley SweeneyRiley reports on the Occupy Bellingham Rally
11 comments; last on Oct 13, 2011
Thu, Sep 29, 2011, 7:46 am // Riley SweeneyRiley looks at Florida cutting in line
1 comments; last on Sep 30, 2011
Mon, Sep 26, 2011, 1:00 am // Riley SweeneyMy Man Godfrey and the Forgotten Generation
4 comments; last on Sep 28, 2011
Sun, Sep 25, 2011, 11:11 am // John ServaisWall Street protests have been ongoing for over a week - but U.S. corporate news media have been covering them up.
1 comments; last on Sep 26, 2011
Wed, Sep 14, 2011, 10:34 pm // Riley SweeneyRiley examines the legislative and congressional redistricting.
1 comments; last on Sep 18, 2011
Mon, Sep 05, 2011, 8:19 am // Riley SweeneyRiley writes for the local Dems about Labor Day
3 comments; last on Sep 07, 2011
Thu, Sep 01, 2011, 2:46 pm // John ServaisGeorge Black is comprehensive on the Powder River coal basin, BNSF, and the shipping of coal from Cherry Point and Longview.
6 comments; last on Sep 07, 2011
Fri, Aug 19, 2011, 2:13 pm // John ServaisRick Perry hardly breaks his shuffle as Bank of America promises to support his campaign for president.
1 comments; last on Aug 21, 2011
Sun, Jul 31, 2011, 2:17 pm // Riley SweeneyRiley talks about the sobering reminder of our fallen soldiers at the Old Settler's Parade
2 comments; last on Aug 01, 2011
Tue, Jul 26, 2011, 9:45 am // Riley SweeneyRiley tackles "Entitlement Reform" as a bad frame
8 comments; last on Aug 01, 2011
Wed, Jul 06, 2011, 12:40 am // Riley SweeneyRiley rants about the economy, and the solutions to our ills
6 comments; last on Aug 02, 2011
Sun, May 15, 2011, 1:16 pm // Riley SweeneyRiley Sweeney outlines the three storylines defining Obama's Re-election Campaign
2 comments; last on May 17, 2011
Sat, Apr 09, 2011, 11:50 am // Riley SweeneyRiley Sweeney highlights some Old School Politics
1 comments; last on Apr 10, 2011
Mon, Apr 04, 2011, 4:00 pm // Riley SweeneyRiley Sweeney reports on April 2nd Labor Rally
9 comments; last on Apr 09, 2011
Sat, Mar 05, 2011, 5:20 pm // Guest writerBy guest writer Bo Richardson. Karp believes the two-party goal is to make sure your ballot only offers a choice between two hacks - reformers need not apply.
9 comments; last on Mar 09, 2011
Fri, Feb 25, 2011, 10:17 am // Riley SweeneyRiley Sweeney gives a short post about Harry Reid's old school politicking
2 comments; last on Feb 27, 2011
Mon, Feb 21, 2011, 5:17 am // Riley SweeneyRiley Sweeney talks about why it is time for legalization of hemp
1 comments; last on Mar 29, 2011
Wed, Feb 02, 2011, 9:22 am // John ServaisEgypt - just one citizen voicing his perspective on what is happening. Speaking freely.
4 comments; last on Feb 07, 2011
Mon, Jan 24, 2011, 4:33 pm // Riley SweeneyRiley Sweeney briefly shares his thoughts on the State of the Union Address
1 comments; last on Feb 06, 2011
Sun, Jan 09, 2011, 11:56 am // John ServaisSarah Palin's violence-laced rhetoric shares the blame for the Arizona massacre.
18 comments; last on Jan 12, 2011
Mon, Jan 03, 2011, 5:49 am // Riley SweeneyRiley Sweeney talks about his 2011 Legislative Wish List
10 comments; last on Jan 09, 2011
Mon, Dec 27, 2010, 5:29 am // Riley SweeneySweeney explains how President Obama bought off his opponents and scored a solid victory.
12 comments; last on Dec 29, 2010
Wed, Dec 08, 2010, 2:21 am // John ServaisWikiLeaks' Julian Assange faces rape charges. The facts are revealed only by foreign news media.
14 comments; last on Dec 15, 2010
Election InfoCounty election results
State election results
Coal, Oil & Trains
Community Wise Bellingham
Powder River Basin R. C.
Local Blogs & NewsBellingham Herald
Bham Herald Politics Blog
Bham Politics & Economics
Friends of Whatcom
Get Whatcom Planning
League of Women Voters
Western Front - WWU
Local CausesChuckanut Community Forest
City Club of Bellingham
Futurewise - Whatcom
Lummi Island Quarry
N. Cascades Audubon
NW Holocaust Center
Reduce Jet Noise
Salish Sea Org.
Save the Granary Building
WA Conservation Voters
Whatcom Peace & Justice
Port of Bellingham
State election results
US - The White House
WA State Access
WA State Elections
WA State Legislature
Weather & ClimateCliff Mass Weather Blog
Nat Hurricane Center
Two day forecast
Watts Up With That? - climate
Edge of Sports
Famous Internet Skiers
Good Web SitesAl-Jazeera online
Foreign Policy in Focus
Innocence Project, The
Intrnational Herald Tribune
Julia Ioffe/New Republic
Middle East Times
New American Century
Paul Krugman - economics
Personal bio info
Portland Indy Media
Project Vote Smart
Stand for the Troops
Talking Points Memo
The Crisis Papers
War and Piece
NwCitizen 1995 - 2007Early Northwest Citizen
Quiet, Offline or DeadBellingham Police Activity
Citizens of Bellingham
Cordata & Meridian
Facebook Port Reform
N. Sound Conservancy
No Leaky Buckets
Protect Bellingham Parks
The American Telegraph