When discussing the 2012 presidential election, most people fall into one of three camps. These three storylines show up throughout various partisan groups; the only difference is how they are presented. Consider them, for there is support for all three in recent events, and decide where you fall.
A. Obama is Unstoppable, Easy Re-election. After killing Osama Bin-Laden, Obama has been riding high with a 60% approval rating. The economy has slowly but steadily been recovering, and this puts him on a fine path to re-election. He has been taking moderate but publicly popular positions (see his latest immigration reform speech) and building a massive campaign organization. He will cruise to re-election.
B. Obama is going to win, but mainly because the Republican field is TERRIBLE! Obama isn’t doing that great. Unemployment remains high; he has not had any major legislative accomplishments since extending unemployment and repealing Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell. But he is saved because the Republican field is one of the worst since John Kerry won the Democratic nomination by default. When Donald Trump showed up and quickly rose to second in the polls over a couple of weeks because of the birther issue, it shows that the field is really weak. The strongest candidate is probably Mitt Romney, who frankly looks and talks like the guy who just laid you off. Who else is in the field? Michelle Bachmann? Crazy, and her vice-presidential pick is an ancient horror. Tim Pawlenty? Dull and uninspiring. Mike Huckabee? Maybe, he’s always been my pick, but he never seems to be serious about it. Newt Gingrich? Herman Cain? Really? Anyway, my point is that in this school of thought, Obama might not be great but he will coast to re-election because of the weak field on the other side.
C. Obama is doomed. He has pissed off his base, destroyed the economy, etc. and will lose in a landslide. Despite the economic recovery news, unemployment remains high, gas prices continue to rise, we are still in Afghanistan and Iraq, and our debt continues to rise. This meme that Obama is doomed is more popular among Republicans but I’ve heard it from Democrats and Progressives as well. Some blame the president for inept handling of this or that, others blame his advisors, or the economy, or the opposition, but there is a steady stream of articles about Obama being a one-term president.
Those are the three recurring stories that get tacked onto whatever piece of political news comes out. Obama reaches this number in the polls, it must mean (insert a, b, or c.) The Republicans passed this resolution, it must mean (insert a, b, or c.) Political reporting has become so narrative-focused, that I bet 90% of the stories written from now until the first primary numbers come in are going to be some variation on these three themes.
Notice what isn’t there. There is no room in these stories for say, “We are a deeply divided country that is worried about our future and are unsure of the right path.” Or, “Unheard of amounts of corporate cash are going to decide the winner of the election.” Or, “People are frustrated with (candidate), for (these reasons) but will end up voting for (that candidate) because they fit closest with their values and it will be a tight race either way.” Those stories provide context, depth, and an understanding of the electorate, and clearly make terrible television and headlines.
So my question for you: Do you fall into one of the above categories? I am sitting around option B, I don’t think Obama is as strong as he could be, but the Republican field is pretty weak this time around. What do you think? The floor is yours.
Comments by Readers
Craig Mayberry
May 16, 2011Riley,
I have a prediction as well. I predict that the Seattle Seahawks will win the 2013 Superbowl. I agree those are the story lines advocated by the press, however, this exercise is a little like trying to predict the winner of the 2013 Superbowl. Anything being stated at this time is pure speculation and completely irrelevant and should be put in the same level of value as my Superbowl prediction. Anyone that says right now that Obama is unstoppable for re-election is na?ve and is only saying it because they wish it were true. To claim that the republican field is weak would be the same as claiming the democrat party ticket for 2012 is weak. Obama has some strengths and many weaknesses, just like everyone that has currently announced for the republican nomination. As usual, this will be an election of the lesser of two evils and largely irrelevant because neither party will be able to exercise totalitarian control of the government.
Whether Obama has an easy ride to a second term will be entirely based on the economy in November 2012. If job creation is high, GDP growth 4%+, and consumer confidence strong then it will not matter who the Republicans field, they will lose. If job creation continues to be weak, GDP growth remains around 2% and consumer confidence remains low then it does not matter who the Republicans field because they will win. If I had to guess on these state of the economy next year then I suspect it will still not be great, primarily because the budget deficit will continue to be very high and hinder anyone from doing much buying or hiring. Although some economists (Krugman) like to claim that the deficit does not matter, it does psychologically. No one in their right mind can look at a $1.5 trillion deficit and say that is not a cause for grave concern and businesses and individuals will act accordingly. No one will take any risks, and start buying and hiring, until they are confident that the deficit is truly under control and that will not happen in the next 2 years, things have to get much worse before they get any better. Pres. Obama can claim over and over that the economy is on track, but no one is buying it, nor will they, no matter how many times he claims otherwise.
By the way, assuming that the current 2011 election status remains the same and there are no Democrat candidates for any of the 3 county council seats then the Democrats have great reason to fear next year. If they cannot motivate anyone to take on Sam Crawford then one could conclude that they have lost motivation and have given up. Hopefully someone steps forward and runs because no one should be given a free pass to election, but there is little excitement for this years election and what will fundamentally change before next year.
Riley Sweeney
May 17, 2011You make some very good points about any guess right now are speculation. My point is that there is going to be a ton of digital ink spilled discussing the presidential race between now and when the race firms up in Iowa and the writing will be lazy, pointless and utterly predictable.
Also, don’t worry about the Dems fielding candidates against Sam Crawford, there are quite a few people excited about jumping in. The Dems are just making sure we don’t jump on top of each other.