About David A. Swanson

David A. Swanson is Edward A. Dickson Emeritus Professor of Sociology, University of California Riverside. He served as a member of the U. S. Census Bureau’s Scientific Advisory Committee for six years (2004-10) and chaired the committee for two years (2009-2010). In addition to serving as an expert witness and testifying before Congress, state legislatures and local government bodies, he has produced over 104 refereed sole- and co-authored journal articles and nine books, mainly dealing with demography. He also has edited or co-edited four additional books and Google Scholar shows more than 5,700 citations to his work. in addition to two Fulbright grants, he has received many other academic and professional grants and awards. Aided by the G.I. Bill, his B.Sc. is from Western Washington State College (now known as Western Washington University), and his Ph.D. and M.A. are from the University of Hawai’i. He also holds a Graduate Diploma in Social Sciences from the University of Stockholm. Swanson speaks Swedish reasonably well but his Finnish is so bad as to be embarrassing: "Se on huono."

By: David A. Swanson (21)

The Last Stand

By

Beneath this mask is more than flesh. Beneath this mask is an idea, Mr Creedy. And ideas are bulletproof

[This article has a co-author, Eric Tyberg, a retired IT executive consultant residing in Lincoln, California. Originally from Falun, Wisconsin, he rose through the ranks at IBM and formed his own consulting business when IBM downsized.

On October 16th, ABC News reported that the United States has only four counties remaining that have not reported any COVID-19 cases. Not surprising is that all of these counties are isolated and rural. One of them, Kalawao, is the site of the former leper colony on the island of Moloka’i, where some 80 or so people still reside. Even though leprosy has been conquered by modern medicine, Most of these residents chose to remain there because they believed their disfigurements from the illness would make reintegration into society impossible. The other three, Esmeralda County, Nevada, Loving County, Texas, and the Municipality and Borough of Skagway, located in SE Alaska, are far more open than Kalawao, which restricts visitors and sees few of its residents traveling beyond its boundaries.

The last of the 39 counties in Washington to report zero COVID-19 cases was Garfield. It reported its first confirmed case on July 12th and by July 14th it reported a second case. As of October 16th, the count had climbed to 13. This is in a county with one town, Pomeroy, and 2,225 residents.

Like Garfield County, the COVID-19 pandemic was slow to reach the other 1,975 rural counties in the U.S., but reach them it did. Moreover, it will reach the last four standing, even Kalawao. Given the isolation and low population density of these rural counties, the majority of residents likely believed that the pandemic was an urban problem and would not reach them. Unfortunately, this belief was itself misplaced and was aided and abetted by their political leanings (typically, Republican, as is the case with Garfield County), which made many residents ill-disposed to outside mandates to self-isolate, practice social distancing, and wear masks, possibly due to the misinformation they consumed from conservative media outlets. The outcome was also, unfortunately, predictable. With Trump himself contracting and spreading the disease around the country and the entrenchment of COVID-19 in rural counties, it appears that our hypothesis was accurate, “being Republican and being in proximity to Republicans” did, indeed, turn out to be a very real risk factor.

To paraphrase the line at the top of this article, which is taken from the film, V For Vendetta, “Beneath this mask is an idea, one about my safety and yours, and ideas like this are bulletproof.”

About David A. Swanson

Posting Citizen Journalist • Member since Mar 31, 2020

David A. Swanson is Edward A. Dickson Emeritus Professor of Sociology, University of California Riverside. He served as a member of the U. S. Census Bureau’s Scientific Advisory Committee [...]

Larry Horowitz

Oct 18, 2020

“The only thing we have to fear is fear itself.” - FDR

America’s Frontline Doctors speak out again about successful early treatment of COVID-19.

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David A. Swanson

Oct 18, 2020

Fear the walking dead is a better phrase for this point in time.

 

https://memegenerator.net/img/instances/78033272.jpg

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Mike Sennett

Oct 19, 2020

Speaking of fear, it’s a shame that Dr. Fauci has to fear death threats made to him and his family.

Probably fake news, even though I saw him on 60 Minutes. 

Meanwhile, Dr. Atlas shrugs and advocates herd mentality, herd immunity, herd insanity.

I didn’t hear POTUS say he was saved by hydroxyxchloroquine or oleander.

One America News…....consider the source.

“There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there always has been.The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge.” Issac Asimov

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David A. Swanson

Oct 20, 2020

CDC has just released a report on the estimated number of deaths in the US due to COVID-19. Below is a summary follwed by the URL to the CDC paper

 

Summary
What is already known about this topic?
As of October 15, 216,025 deaths from COVID-19 have
been reported in the United States; however, this might
underestimate the total impact of the pandemic on mortality.


What is added by this report?
Overall, an estimated 299,028 excess deaths occurred from late
January through October 3, 2020, with 198,081 (66%) excess
deaths attributed to COVID-19. The largest percentage increases
were seen among adults aged 25–44 years and among Hispanic
or Latino persons.


What are the implications for public health practice?
These results inform efforts to prevent mortality directly or
indirectly associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, such as
efforts to minimize disruptions to health care.

 

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6942e2.htm

 

 

 
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Larry Horowitz

Oct 22, 2020

45 out of 50 US Governors did not force Covid-19 infected patients into nursing homes, but 5 of them did: NY, PA, NJ, CA, MI. That is nearly 40% of all Covid-19 deaths in the US.

 

 

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Larry Horowitz

Oct 23, 2020

Per CDC as of 9/10/20: COVID-19 survival rates by age:

0 - 19 years: 99.997%

20 - 49 years: 99.98%

50 - 69 years: 99.5%

70+ years: 94.6%

Protect the most at risk! But don’t live in fear!

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Larry Horowitz

Oct 23, 2020 Read More...

David A. Swanson

Oct 24, 2020 Read More...

Larry Horowitz

Oct 24, 2020

Times have really changed at Northwest Citizen… and not for the better. When I was a Northwest Citizen writer, there’s no way I would ever respond to someone who commented on my article the way David Swanson has. It’s amazing to me what John Servais, Dick Conoboy and Deb Gaber have allowed to happen to NWC. 

David, the issue is COVID-19. Not sure how your attempts to embarass a sitting President are relevant, but they certainly say more about you than about our President.

John, Dick and Deb, are y’all ok with this from one of your writers?

 

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David A. Swanson

Oct 24, 2020

I guess our correspondence a few months ago still bothers you given that you finally found the courage to write  a  “last word” in this exchange, something you broke off doing in a huff in the intial round, with similar complaints to John and Dick. It’s a  miraclulous resurrection, coming out from the Edgemoor tomb and making the “commentary” rounds. Is this the first of two post-resurrection appearences? Even if there is another one,  I am so honored to witness the first. Was it that Phi Beta Kappa, private school background that resurrected you or your former Fotune 500 clients that you were compelled to tell all of us about  in the earlier exchange?

Oooh, gimme chicken skin, Brah.  Akimai buggar ah you an’ da kine mensa, eh?

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NWCitizen Management

Oct 25, 2020

It is not the role of the NWCitizen editors to be arbiters among commenters.  We do, in fact, ask that commenters refrain from ad hominem attacks and stick to the issues.   A simple policy regarding comments is on our website under Mission.  

“Commenting is available to local readers whose identity has been verified. This encourages responsible and civil dialog and mostly avoids inane threads. Comments cannot be deleted.”

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David A. Swanson

Oct 25, 2020

My long-deceased friend with whom I fished in Alaska on his commercial troller, advised that one need not take anything said by a poltroon seriously. I simply extended that advice to  the Trump Trollers like Mr. Horowitz, who peddle the falsehoods and other mis-information spewed out by the poltroon in the White House. If Mr. Horowitz does not like his glorious leader to be ridiculed in my replies to his trolling, instead of whining about it, he should take some direct action for a change -  attend a Trump rally in his MAGA cap and chant, “Lock ‘him up.” Film at 11.00

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The Last Stand

By David A. SwansonOn Oct 17, 2020

Beneath this mask is more than flesh. Beneath this mask is an idea, Mr Creedy. And ideas are bulletproof [This article has a co-author, Eric Tyberg, a retired IT executive [...]

15 comments, most recent 3 days ago

COVID-19 Deaths in Whatcom County

By David A. SwansonOn Jul 26, 2020

On March 22nd, a COVID-19 case was announced at the Shuksan Long Term Care Center in Bellingham’s York Neighborhood and by March 25th the first of 11 residents had died, [...]

2 comments, most recent 3 months ago

Republican-leaning states take the lead!

By David A. SwansonOn Jul 21, 2020

This article is co-authored with Eric Tyberg, a retired IT executive and consultant residing in Lincoln, California. Originally from Falun, Wisconsin, he rose through the ranks at IBM and formed [...]

4 comments, most recent 3 weeks ago

Update on the COVID-19 Warning System for San Juan County

By David A. SwansonOn Jul 18, 2020

Co-author of this article is Peter A. Morrison, Ph.D., RAND Corporation Senior Demographer (retired) and President, Peter A. Morrison and Associates, Inc. He is an applied demographer based on [...]

Is “Being Republican” a Risk to One’s Health and the Health of Others?

By David A. SwansonOn Jul 03, 2020

[This article has two co-authors. The first is Eric Tyberg, a retired IT executive and consultant residing in Lincoln, California. Originally from Falun, Wisconsin, he rose through the ranks at [...]

6 comments, most recent 3 months ago

Revisiting the Estimation of Unconfirmed Cases of COVID-19 in Whatcom County

By David A. SwansonOn Jun 27, 2020

[Co-author of this article is Ronald E. Cossman, Ph.D., a Research Professor and Research Fellow at the Social Science Research Center at Mississippi State University. He also directs the [...]

A Tale of 39 Counties: Re-opening Washington and Political Orientation

By David A. SwansonOn Jun 21, 2020

[Co-author of this article is Eric Tyberg, a retired IT executive and consultant residing in Lincoln, California. Originally from Falun, Wisconsin, he rose through the ranks at IBM and formed [...]

12 comments, most recent 4 months ago

A Tale of Two Counties: Re-opening Skagit and Whatcom

By David A. SwansonOn Jun 16, 2020

[Co-author of this article is Eric Tyberg, a retired IT executive and consultant residing in Lincoln, California. Originally from Falun, Wisconsin, he rose through the ranks at IBM and formed [...]

5 comments, most recent 4 months ago

Early-Warning Covid-19 Alert for San Juan County and Other Seasonal Resort Communities

By David A. SwansonOn Jun 02, 2020

[Co-author of this article is Peter A. Morrison, Ph.D., RAND Corporation Senior Demographer (retired) and President, Peter A. Morrison and Associates, Inc. He is an applied demographer based on [...]

6 comments, most recent 4 months ago

The Lack of Containment Measures: Does It Constitute Senicide?

By David A. SwansonOn May 07, 2020

[This article authored by David A. Swanson with assistance from NWCitizen writer Dick Conoboy] Senicide, or geronticide, is the killing of the elderly, or their abandonment to death. Because the [...]

3 comments, most recent 4 months ago

Monitoring the COVID-19 Pandemic in Benton County: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly

By David A. SwansonOn May 04, 2020

The COVID-pandemic in Benton County has played out differently than in Whatcom County. The baseline forecast for its expected peak on April 29th was a total of 17,716 confirmed cases, which [...]

Whatcom County COVID-19: The Final Report

By David A. SwansonOn May 01, 2020

Modeling even simple aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic is more than challenging in the United States because of the sparsity of data.There is no comprehensive testing, and an active [...]

4 comments, most recent 5 months ago

Modeling and the Covid-19 Pandemic:  A Local Area Perspective

By David A. SwansonOn Apr 23, 2020

Modeling even simple aspects of the covid-19 pandemic is more than challenging in the United States because of the sparsity of data. There is no comprehensive testing and little is [...]

5 comments, most recent 6 months ago

Monitoring the COVID-19 Surge Peak in Benton County - Update Possible?

By David A. SwansonOn Apr 20, 2020

On April 7th, I wrote that the COVID-pandemic in Benton County appeared to be playing out differently than in Whatcom County. Its surge peak was expected on April 29th, four [...]

2 comments, most recent 6 months ago

Monitoring the COVID-19 Surge Peak in Whatcom County - Update 3

By David A. SwansonOn Apr 17, 2020

On March 30th, Northwest Citizen published a baseline COVID-19 surge peak forecast I did for Whatcom County. The forecast used March 28th as its launch point. It showed 6,151 total confirmed [...]

4 comments, most recent 6 months ago

How Many Unconfirmed Cases of COVID-19 are in Whatcom County?

By David A. SwansonOn Apr 14, 2020

[Co-author of this article is Ronald E. Cossman, Ph.D., a Research Professor and Research Fellow at the Social Science Research Center at Mississippi State University. He also directs the [...]

10 comments, most recent 6 months ago

Monitoring the COVID-19 Surge Peak in Whatcom County - Update 2

By David A. SwansonOn Apr 10, 2020

On March 30th, Northwest Citizen published a baseline COVID-19 surge peak forecast I did for Whatcom County. The forecast used March 28th as its launch point. It showed 6,151 total confirmed [...]

5 comments, most recent 6 months ago

Monitoring the COVID-19 Surge Peak in Benton County

By David A. SwansonOn Apr 07, 2020

Introduction: The COVID-pandemic in Benton County appears to be playing out differently than in Whatcom County. Its surge peak is expected on April 29th, four days after the peak in [...]

COVID-19 Hospitalizations in Whatcom County

By David A. SwansonOn Apr 05, 2020

[Updated 4/6/2020: From a friend in Kennewick, I discovered that a long-time hospital in Pasco (Franklin County) is still open, contrary to the data from the American Hospital Directory I found [...]

13 comments, most recent 6 months ago

Monitoring the COVID-19 Surge Peak in Whatcom County - Update I

By David A. SwansonOn Apr 03, 2020

On March 30th, Northwest Citizen published a baseline COVID-19 surge peak forecast I did for Whatcom County. The forecast used March 28th as its launch point. It showed 6,151 total confirmed [...]

12 comments, most recent 6 months ago