Out of “mortality curiosity” and with a lot of time on my hands, I calculated the probability of dying from COVID-19 within a year of being infected, for anyone aged 20 to 80. I looked specifically at the probability of death by COVID-19 among the un-vaccinated who become infected with COVID-19 vs. death among the vaccinated and unexposed who are subject to dying from all other possible causes. I used data from the “Hubei Study,” which collected information on COVID-19 deaths following hospital admissions in Wuhan, China. For comparison, I also calculated data on deaths from all other causes for anyone aged 20 to 80 who was not infected.
What I found was that until age 78, if you are un-vaccinated and become infected, the probability of dying from COVID-19 is higher than the probability of dying from any of the other potential causes of death. For example, if you are an un-vaccinated 20 year-old, and have just been infected with COVID-19, the probability of dying from COVID-19 within the next year is 10.1 times higher (0.00567 v. 0.00056) than that of a (vaccinated/unexposed) 20 year-old dying within the year from any of the other potential causes of death. At age 30, the probability is 7.78 times higher; at age 40 it is 5.57 times higher; at age 50 it is 3.36 times higher; at age 60, 2.22 times higher. At age 70, the probability of dying from COVID-19 within the next year for an un-vaccinated person just infected with COVID-19 is slightly higher (1.43 times) than the likelihood of a (vaccinated/unexposed) 70 year-old dying from any of the other potential causes of death over the next year. (0.55817 v. 0.38972)
To summarize: If you are un-vaccinated and get infected, the probability of dying from COVID-19 starts high at age 20 and increases steadily with age. If you are vaccinated or avoid becoming infected, the probability of dying from any other cause starts low at age 20, but increases at a faster rate as you age so that by age 78 all the other competing causes of death cross-over (no pun intended). This means that just like a vaccinated person, an un-vaccinated person is more likely to die from something other than COVID-19 after age 78. However, if you are un-vaccinated, the question here is why keep COVID-19 on the list of potential causes of death?
The graph only goes to age 80, which, unlike the single year groupings from 20 to 80 (20, 21, 22, 23,…., 77, 78, 79, 80), is “open-ended.” This puts the probability of dying at 100 percent at some point beyond age 80. That is, you may live to 81 or 95 or 103, but at some age after 80, “all our times have come." Whether vaccinated or un-vaccinated, nobody gets out alive.
The Washington Department of Health is reporting that 72.7 percent of the state's population, aged five and over, are fully vaccinated, while only 68 percent in Whatcom County are fully vaccinated.
What’s on your vaccination card?"