All week I'm hearing from political pros how Mark will still beat Brett for mayor. Mark is too smooth, they say. Mark knows what to say in every situation. Brett is doing a poor job of exposing Mark's record.

Consider this. Mark got 28% of the vote. We cannot find a local incumbent receiving less than 30% in a primary who was then elected in the general election. The biggest comeback found was in 1991. Shirley Van Zanten got 31% in the primary (against 6 challengers) and 57% in the general to win. She beat Don Hansey. This year Don is running for city council against Terry Borneman.

We all agree this is the most contested mayor election with an incumbent in memory. All past mayors were re-elected every time they ran. Douglas, Hertz, Williams, Westford - that is as far back as we can go. Douglas had a tough race in 1991, getting 34% in the primary against four challengers, and 58% in the general to win. (thanks to BM for research)

Bottom line: The mayor's race is 50-50. It is probably Brett's to lose