This is another post with lots of maps and pictures, so click on over to The Political Junkie to see all the graphics . . .
Hello Loyal Readers,
How are we holding up? Sick of maps and charts yet? We are coming down the final stretch. Last post, I examined the Lynden Suburbs, and before that the Louws/Ericksen race. Today, I am examining Christina Maginnis' race where she failed to prevail over ethically-challenged incumbent Sam Crawford.
On paper, it looks like a serious uphill battle for Christina Maginnis. She is a Department of Ecology employee which can be a negative factor in the county, and she is running against an eight-year incumbent, the chairman of the county council, and a rallying point for many conservatives. But Christina had a few aces in her pocket. First, her race was made one of the top priorities of both the Whatcom Democrats and the Washington Conservation Voters. Both those groups did mailings and get-out-the-vote efforts on her behalf.
The other thing she had going for her, is that she is Christina Maginnis. She worked her power-suit off doorbelling, holding events, talking to voters, and campaigning up a storm. Her message about strong emergency services to rural areas resonated, while Sam Crawford was dogged by his own ethical missteps. While Maginnis didn't quite pull it off, she came very, very close. Let's see the maps.
As always, you can click on the maps to view them closer. The conventional wisdom is that a Democratic candidate running for a county-wide seat has to pull 2/3rds of Bellingham and hold a 1/3rd of the county. Well, Maginnis did that. She pulled 65% of the city vote, and 40% of the county. Not bad at all. She did especially well in the Foothills area. Unfortunately, she lost votes in the I-5 corridor outside of Bellingham. She needed a better showing in Ferndale and Blaine to bump off Crawford, and that didn't quite happen. It was still darn close. For comparison, let's take a look at someone who did pull it off: Pete Kremen.
For all the maps in this post, I kept the color scheme consistent, so at a glance you can see the difference. While Pete Kremen did not do quite as well in the city as Maginnis, he did MUCH better in the county. Pete Kremen got an average of 63% in Bellingham, but pulled a whopping 44% in the county. Look at the Lynden suburbs, he is pulling 40% in Lynden, and a dead heat in Ferndale. In most of the rural county he is only trailing Larson by 6-8%. That adds up quick. He actually won Blaine, hands down.
So what does this mean? Basically, what we already knew. You cannot win a county seat based on Bellingham alone, you have to be at least competitive. On the flip-side, conservative candidates have to defend the small cities AND make inroads in Bellingham to hold their edge. Without his 37% in Bellingham, Larson would have been trounced badly.
A few more nuggets. It looks like Pete Kremen's handling of the Lummi ferry negotiations were pleasantly received, as he got plenty of votes from those areas. Also, neither Tony Larson nor Sam Crawford did as well as they should have in the South Fork, probably as a result of their efforts to gravel mine the area.
Take a look at the maps and let me know if I missed anything. As I said in some of my earlier posts, you can look at the data, but not into the reasons behind voter choices. For that, all you have is speculation.
