Did Trump Help Democrats take the election?

This article is co-authored with Eric Tyberg, a retired IT executive and consultant residing in Lincoln, California. Originally from Falun, Wisconsin, he rose through the ranks at IBM and formed his own consulting business when IBM downsized.

Counties that voted for Trump in 2016 have now firmly taken the lead in Covid-19 cases and deaths. Between January 22^nd and October 30^th there were 5,636,505 Covid-19 cases in the 2,656 counties carried by Trump in 2016 and 113,652 deaths due to Covid-19. With a population of around 150 million, these counties have far less people than the 178 million residing in the 487 counties carried by Clinton, which report 3,828,076 Covid-19 cases and 113,081 deaths due to Covid-19 between January 22^nd and October 30^th.

In the immediate run-up to the election, the differences are even more stark. From October 1^st to October 30^th, Trump’s counties report 1,230,223 cases and 15,902 deaths while Clinton’s counties report 554,502 Covid-19 cases and 6,192 deaths due to Covid-19. In terms of cases, Trump’s counties have 69% of the cases in the US and 72 % of the Covid-19 deaths.

The media reports that republicans waited until election day to vote, as instructed by Trump. With more than twice the cases and 2.5 times the deaths, many republicans in the counties carried by Trump in 2016 may have ended up not being able to vote in person.

Trump’s super spreader campaign rallies along with the lack of mask wearing and social distancing by his followers may have turned out to be a factor in assisting Biden, not in terms of policy, but because they spread more sickness and deaths among republicans than among democrats, especially in the immediate run-up to the election.